Has Joe Arpaio ever had an 80% approval rating?
Not that we can verify. But it may be possible if you fail to include entire age groups from your interpretation of the data.
Have voters ever elected Joe Arpaio with 80% of the vote?
Never. His largest election margin in a contested election was in 2000, when he won with 66.5% of the vote. In two of his four elections, Arpaio won with 57% of the vote.
Is Joe Arpaio's popularity increasing?
No. Arpaio's approval ratings have been dropping steadily since 2000, dropping over 22% since 1999.
An email is circulating in the retiree community that claims Arpaio was relected "last year" with 83% of the vote. Is any of it true?
Absolutely not.
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The Truth About Arpaio's Poll Numbers
Joe Arpaio loves to tell the media and the public that he enjoys "80-90%" popularity. In fact, he uses this false claim to promote his book. This would be impressive if only it were true. Unfortunately for him, it isn't. It's just another example of Arpaio using his five-person, half-million dollar public relations staff to spin a half-truth into something he wants you to believe.
If you repeat a lie often enough...
10.21.08 - A new survey by a new polling company shows that Arpaio's approval rating has dropped below 50%, and he now leads challenger Dan Saban in the polls by only 2.69% (45.64% to 42.95%, with 11.41% undecided). That's within the polls' 3.7% margin of error. Just this year alone, Arpaio's ratings have now fallen nearly 30 points!
08.07.08 - Joe Arpaio has changed his tune--again. With new polls out showing his numbers are in a free fall to below 50%, Arpaio heads to the friendly media to delude us again. Where he used to say he has 80% popularity of the voters for everything he does, NOW he says he has 80% approval for his immigration enforcement efforts (KTAR Larry Gaydos Program, 08.06.08, 7:30PM). How can this be true?
Guess what? It isn't. A Cronkite-Eight Poll in October 2007 found that 62 percent of all respondents favor "Arpaio's tough stance." A Behavior Research Poll in December 2007 found that 66 percent of Arizonans believe "some politicians are turning (immigration) into an ugly racial issue. Sixty-two percent may be 12% more than half, but they're 18% less than 80.
So even with his poll numbers dropping like a rock, Joe Arpaio needs to finds a way to spin himself into higher levels of popularity than exists in reality in order to get people to vote for him. For someone who brags they "tell it like it is," Joe Arpaio always seems to be making it sound better than it really is.
Isn't that interesting?
Arizona Republic: Sheriff Joe Arpaio: Mayor, you're out of step, out of line
Election returns
Arpaio has said himself that the only polls that matter are election results. We would agree. Taking a look at the official election results clearly shows Arpaio is nowhere near as popular as he wants you to believe. He's just another politician telling you what he thinks you want to hear.
General Election Campaign Opponents
1992 Arpaio (R) v. Armer (D)
1996 Arpaio (R) ran unopposed (even then got 79% of the votes cast)
2000 Arpaio (R) v. Ayala (D) and Bearup (I)
2004 Arpaio (R) v. Ayala (D) and Martin (I)
The bottom line is Joe Arpaio is no more popular today with people who voter than he was when he first ran in 1992. But more to the point, these "polls that matter most" do not indicate in any way that Arpaio enjoys "80-90% popularity." In fact, he's 33.3% off from his stated high point according to the actual 2004 vote totals. One-third of the electorate is no small group of people.
Opinion Polls Don't Support Arpaio's Claims.
In an attempt to give Arpaio the benefit of the doubt that there may be a scientific poll somewhere that supports his "80-90%" popularity claim, we examined polls from the two most often used sources of polling data to see if Arpaio is telling the truth: the Cronkite-Eight Polls from ASU and the Rocky Mountain Polls conducted by Behavior Research Center (BRC).
Why use these polls and not the ones you find on blogs and web sites? For the simple reason the questions are asked in ways that are consistent with common and acceptable scientific research methods by people who know how to study public opinion. Blog and web site polls are not. Now to the results.
The Cronkite-Eight polls provide snapshots of Arpaio's "approval" ratings for the years 1999, 2001, 2007 and 2008. At first glance, these polls support the notion that Arpaio is popular. But what is important are the trends--they are headed downward and towards less approval. As you can see above, there are many fewer people who rate Arpaio as doing an "Excellent" job and fewer people who rate him as doing a "Good." job. At the same time, the numbers of people who see him doing a "Poor" or "Very Poor" have increased significantly.
A look at the trends doesn't look good for Arpaio either. With less than five percentage points before the majority of Maricopa County voters disapprove of his performance, Joe Arpaio's negative press is beginning to show up in the polls and hopefully, at the ballot box in November.
That was then, this is now.
At this point in his career as Sheriff, Joe Arpaio has never been less popular and the trends indicate he is in serious trouble. Comparing overall approval rating (combining ratings of "Excellent" and "Good"), Arpaio's peak popularity was 81% in 2001, compared to 59% in April of 2008. That's a 22% drop from his peak, but it certainly shows his "approval ratings" are nowhere near 80%.
Cronkite-Eight Polls: Dec. 1999 | Jan. 2001 | Nov. 2007 | Apr. 2008
Polls by Behavior Research Center (BRC) also disprove the claim by Arpaio that he has "80-90" approval ratings. Surveys conducted in Maricopa County between 2004 and 2008 show Arpaio's approval ratings well below 80-90%. BRC's own analysis from November indicates that Arpaio's popularity has peaked and their latest poll from July 2008 shows he has dropped even more, now to only 54%. Taking into account the margin of error, it is possible Arpaio's approval rating is right at 50%. Yet despite these published numbers, Joe Arpaio stated on C-SPAN that the latest BRC poll has his approval ratings at "80%."
Behavior Research Center Polls: Feb. 2004 | Mar. 2006 | Nov. 2007
Conveniently Ignored Poll
On his campaign web site, Joe Arpaio cites polls from many sources to bolster his approval claims. However, he conveniently misstates the Cronkite-Eight (ASU) and BRC poll results and completely ignores a Sept. 2003 poll conducted by O'Neil Associates, which gives Arpaio a 35% approval rating. As he is fond of saying "Isn't that interesting."
O'Neil Poll: McCain, Goddard, and Romley Head List of Highly Approved Government Officials (2003)
No Evidence to Support Arpaio's Claim
Despite his claims of mass popularity, no public scientific poll that uses standard research methodologies that includes all age groups supports Arpaio's assertion he has "always" had "80-90% approval" ratings. It is total B.S. [return to B.S. Meter]
Can you help?
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